2008-03-04
The side-effect of compressing all the primaries into a shorter space is that we expected it to be over by now. Thirty years ago, the electoral cycle would just be gearing up for New Hampshire; it seems like a geological period has passed since 2008's contest.
Which is to say: if nobody comes out stronger tonight, the next big primary is on April 22nd (Mississippi and Wyoming are next week, but they don't have a huge amount of delegates on offer). That's almost two months of campaigning and Democratic self-immolation while the Republicans look and laugh. I can't wait.
Obama seems to have had a tough weekend. Firstly, there's all this business with somebody in his team telling the Canadian embassy that his tough talk on NAFTA was all for show, though it's unclear just how much Canadian politics is playing a part in all that, and then the Rezko trial starting in Chicago. All this has blunted his polling in both Texas and Ohio. Having said that, he was twenty points down in both states just a scant few weeks back.
Meanwhile, Clinton seems to be back on the momentum, looking likely to take Ohio, Rhode Island, and tying (or edging a slight win) in Texas. But will it be enough? Amusingly, Obama's win tonight in Vermont may itself be enough to balance her delegate wins in the remaining states, depending on how big her victory is. She can no longer catch Obama in a pledged delegate race; all she can do is try to cut into his lead and persuade the superdelegates to vote for her en masse.
But the latest rumour is that Obama has 50 superdelegates ready to declare at a drop of a hat; a secret weapon to take the sting out of a tight night, and incidentally making the Michigan and Florida be able to stand without changing anything. Would that be enough to end it? Or are we going all the way to North Carolina and Puerto Rico?