Polls, Polls, Polls (Can you take my polls?)

The campaign has moved on from Swift boats and National Guard records; now it’s an all-out assault on the most heinous of all evils: the polling companies (death to Joey Lucas!).

Specifically, Democrats are fuming about Gallup’s polling for the past three months, which has been consistently showing a large lead for Bush over Kerry, contradicting the results from almost all of the other polling companies. Some are questioning Gallup’s reliance on what it calls The Likely Voter Model; this method involves asking seven questions of the pollee (no, I know it’s not a real word), and throws out answers by people who score below a certain threshold (supposedly, you need either six or seven correct answers to be included in Gallup’s sample). And this model creates a split in the sample, indicating that Republican voters will outnumber Democrat voters by six to eight percentage points (the rest of Bush’s lead comes from independent voters). But, historically, voters who identify themselves as Democrats outnumber the Republicans at the actual polls. In fact, if the Gallup data is true, then the change in vote would be almost equal to the shift towards FDR in the 1930s. It could happen, but none of the other polls are predicting such a huge shift. If Gallup’s LV data is re-weighted to 2000’s turnout, then the race narrows to Bush 48-47 Kerry. (Also, the high lead masks that Kerry is leading smong independent voters)

Here’s MoveOn.org’s advert from yesterday’s New York Times.

currently playing: Annie — Anniemal

69 Links (okay, six)

Hmm, space sugar…

A sad day for sport.

The greatest shoot ‘em up in the history of mankind…so far.

Mobile Barbie!


Sigh. I remember when Everything Is Nice (Matador At 10) was released.

currently playing: Shonen Knife — Daydream Beliver

Watching the softballs

[whiny tone] I take heat for a lot of things


currently playing: Something I should really not watch ;-)

Catching Up — No Typewriters In Sight!

Before beginning any sightseeing, make your very first destination a walk to the nearest fire exit at your hotel. Know how to get out of your hotel in an emergency. Instead of sightseeing, maybe consider not leaving your hotel at all.

Coming this Fall on Fox News: Epic Journeys To The Back Gate And Back.

Yes, I’m warming up for the first debate on Thursday. Consider yourselves warned…

While I’ve been away: Donald Rumsfeld gets confused about who the heck Osama bin Laden is:

Saddam Hussein, if he’s alive, is spending a whale of a lot of time trying to not get caught. And we’ve not seen him on a video since 2001.

That he did it twice in the same interview suggests that even the Bush Administration has been affected by its relentless juxtaposition of the two regimes. But lo! Is that another episode in “Mr. Rumsfeld’s Neighbourhood”? But of course. This time: faced with the suggestion that it might be a little dangerous for elections to be held in troubled parts of Iraq:

Let’s say you tried to have an election and you could have it in three-quarters or four-fifths of the country. But in some places you couldn’t because the violence was too great,” Rumsfeld said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.
“Well, so be it. Nothing’s perfect in life, so you have an election that’s not quite perfect. Is it better than not having an election? You bet,” he said.

On a completely unrelated note — international observers to oversee upcoming US elections.

Moving on to John Ashcroft, a man who has had so much success. After all, he got the PATRIOT Act passed, thus allowing the authorities to ignore many of the safeguards built into surveillance laws, in order to safeguard the nation and lock up all the terrorists. To date, the agencies Mr. Ashcroft oversees have locked up 5,000 people across America. Unfortunately, he’s yet to get a conviction to stick; at the start of the month, a judge overturned his only success; a conviction of a group of men on terror charges, on the basis that the prosecution was making it all up. But you have to trust the Administration! Changing in mid-course would be tantamount to treason! Even the recent attempt to go after 1970s singer-songwriters seems to be backfiring on them at the moment.

Go Florida!

Go Ohio!

currently playing: Saturday Looks Good To Me — When The Party Ends

A General Plea To Nicky Wire

like the Twin Towers / falling down like April Showers

Nicky. Nicky. Please. For the love of God and The Holy Bible, please stop. It’s getting embarrassing.

currently playing: R.E.M. — Final Straw

Modern Miracles

It’s Cadbury’s chocolate — but shaped like a Pringle! GREATEST THING EVER!

Brought To You By The Numbers 25 and 45 And The Letter Q

This Friday’s selections are just the right thing for when an Autumn day is drawing to a close.

Epic 45I’m Getting Too Young For This

Epic 45 are a UK band, but this song comes recommended via Laura, Chapel Hill and the WXYC radio station (they don’t have a UK record deal at the moment). It has one of those guitar parts; gentle and disarming, introspective and star-gazing. The vocals are hidden behind multiple echo effects, a technique stolen from Disco Inferno (but if you’re going to steal, you might as well go after the best). It’s a song that is trying to express itself, but can’t, hiding behind its tricks, offering brief glimpses of its real state of mind.

Section 25Inspiration

Another old Factory record. This one is much closer to the traditional Factory sound; not surprising considering that this was produced by Bemusic, or New Order under a pen name. A stripped-down dance tune, with a very simple synth melody (which sounds fantastic, but it’s only about five notes), a spaced-out drum beat, and the ever-helpful advice of “once you’ve left the floor, there ain’t no beat no more”. It’s perfect listening for 1am…

currently playing: Le Tigre — I’m So Excited

Continung Suckage

Perhaps next week, then. Sorry!

currently playing: R.E.M. — Country Feedback


Happy 50th Birthday, Dad!

currently playing: Annie — Anniemal

For The Benefit of Mr. Kite

To the person who sent over 100 spam comments to this weblog today:

I really hope that your mobile phone number is discovered by persistent early-morning telemarketers…

currently playing: Heavenly — C Is The Heavenly Option